CAN RUSSIA BECOME A WORLD POWER AGAIN
August 2013
1. Soviet
Union came into being in 1922 through a treaty where in Russia, Ukraine,
Belarus and the Caucausus states merged together through a treaty to form the
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Joseph Stalin came to power in 1924 following Lenin’s death and he
immediately set the country on a different course. He introduced an economic
plan dictated from the top. Agricultural lands were collectivized, creating
large, state-run farms. Industrial development was pushed along at breakneck
speed, and production was almost entirely diverted from consumer products to
capital equipment. Art and literature were placed under much tighter control,
and the radical energy of the Russian Avant-Garde was replaced by the solemn
grandeur of Soviet realism. Religion was violently repressed, as churches were
closed, destroyed, or converted to other uses. Stalin purged all opposition to
himself within the party as well as all opposition to party policy in the
country. By the end of the 1930s, the Soviet Union had become a country in
which life was more strictly regulated than ever before.
2. By the beginning of Second World War, Soviet Union had
emerged as a power to reckon with. The country played a crucial role in
stopping the German advance and inflicted a decisive defeat on the Germans,
which eventually led to the German defeat in the world war. Although the
country suffered enormous devastation and lost more than twenty million lives,
it had gained considerable territory and now ranked as one of the two great
world powers along with the United States. Nonetheless, life in the country
continued to suffer. Industrial production was once again concentrated on heavy
industry, agricultural failures produced widespread famine, political freedoms
were restricted even further, and another huge wave of purges was carried out.
As the Cold War got underway, an increasing proportion of the Soviet Union's
resources were funneled into military projects, further exacerbating the
quality of life. The cold war intensified over the next decades and finally
ended with the collapse of USSR in 1991.
3. Though
Soviet Union was a great military power and had great influence across the
Globe on many issues, the internal situation inside the country was something
different. Even at the peak of Cold war, Soviet economy was just about a
quarter of the US economy. This effectively resulted in almost 25-30 % of the
GDP being spent on military expenses. Consequently agriculture, industry and
welfare activities stagnated leading to widespread discontent among the
population. When Mikhail Gorbachev came into power in 1985, the Russian
structure was beyond efficient administration over a long term and he
introduced measures to create a new Soviet Union. Gorbachev's platform for a
new Soviet Union was founded on two now-famous terms - glasnost (openness) and
perestroika (restructuring). Restructuring began in earnest, with a vigorous
housecleaning of the bureaucracy and a significant investigation into
corruption. Glasnost, however, lost some credibility right at the outset when
it was discovered in April 1986 that the government had waited several days
before admitting to the infamous nuclear disaster at Chernobyl--a reactor explosion
that had thrown radioactive material over a wide area of the country. Backed
into a corner on Chernobyl, Gorbachev countered with the dramatic removal of
all controls on reporting and at that point the fresh air really began to howl.
For the first time in decades, the problems of the country became subjects for
open public discussion. Poverty, corruption, the enormous mismanagement of the
country's resources, the unpopularity of the Afghan war, and a host of other
problems and grievances were raised against the Government.
4. In
the spring of 1989, the first open elections since 1917 were held, allowing
voters a novel choice of more than one candidate for seats in the Congress of
People's Deputies. The governments of the Soviet satellite states in Eastern
Europe, subjected to the same rising tide of public criticism, fell one after
the other in a rapid series of revolutions culminating in the fall of the
Berlin wall. In 1990, the Soviet Union itself began to unravel. Its own
constituent republics began to issue declarations of independence starting with
the Baltic states, Caucasus and finally
Central Asia. By the end of the 1991,
the Soviet Union had been voted out of existence, to be replaced by a
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). On December 25, Gorbachev resigned,
and on midnight of December 31, the Soviet flag atop the Kremlin was replaced
by the Russian tricolour.
CIS Post Collapse
5.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia
tried to develop a market economy and achieve
consistent economic growth. In October 1991, Yeltsin announced that Russia
would proceed with radical, market-oriented reform as recommended by the IMF.
However, this policy resulted in economic collapse, with millions being plunged
into poverty and corruption and crime spreading rapidly. Removal of price
control resulted in hyper inflation, reaching 1500 % by mid 90s. The result was a rapid decline in the value of the ruble,
flight of foreign investment, delayed payments on sovereign and private debts,
a breakdown of commercial transactions through the banking system, and the
threat of continued runaway inflation. To make matters worse, assuming the role as
the sequel to the legal personality of the Soviet Union, Russia took up the
responsibility for settling the USSR's external debts, even though its
population made up just half of the population of the USSR at the time of its
dissolution.
6. Decline of Military. The hard core of Soviet power was, of
course, a formidable military widely regarded for much of the Cold War as
superior to the combined defense exertions of a global coalition of industrial
democracies. In the Soviet era, the Western security debate was haunted by
images of a Soviet military juggernaut. Soviet military power was thought by
many to be capable of conquering Europe, dominating Eurasia, and besting the
United States in the global competition between East and West. The demise of
the Soviet Union left behind this vast military machine, now broken into pieces
and serving various newly independent masters. Over the course of the 1990s, the capitol that
once commanded an apparent military juggernaut witnessed the substantial melting
away of much of its military power. The distribution of military assets was
based on a treaty between the new republics, ironically under the guidance of
NATO. One good thing that happened in spite of the distribution of the military
assets was the consolidation of nuclear arsenal which were located at different
locations in the hands of Russia. This of course buttressed Soviet conventional
capabilities by providing the country with
many thousands of warheads and several thousand delivery systems.
7. The decline of the economy had its effect
on the military too. Sudden decline in military budget caused improper or no
maintenance on equipment. Many of the equipment became obsolete by the end of
nineties. Most of the remaining were rendered non operational. The defence
industry collapsed. New inductions were no more in the pipeline. The military budget
shrank to a low of 30 billion dollars by 1998 resulting in loss of morale
amongst men and unserviceability of equipment.
|
Year
|
Expenditure in bn dollars
|
|
1988
|
443
|
|
1989
|
406
|
|
1990
|
376
|
|
1991
|
324
|
|
1992
|
87
|
|
1993
|
74
|
|
1994
|
71
|
|
1995
|
46
|
|
1996
|
42
|
|
1997
|
45
|
|
1998
|
30
|
Russian Reemergence
8. It
was against the backdrop of uncertain and bleak future that Vladimir Putin took
over Russian presidency in 2000. An ardant fan of soviet union and a former KGB
man, he was quick to consolidate power and bring all govt and military
machinery under his personal control. He made dedicated efforts to regularize
the privatization of Russian Industries. The markets were regularized, strict control established over the
economy and private industrialization was streamlined. Firm plans were made and
executed to rejuvenate the economy and to put Russia on the path to recovery.
9. During
Putin's first eight years in office, the industry grew by 75%, investments
increased by 125%, and agricultural production and construction increased
as well. Real incomes more than doubled and the average salary increased
eightfold from $80 to $640. The GDP doubled,
climbing from 22nd place to 11th place in the world
during this period. By 2007, Russian GDP was more than what it was in 1990, prior
to the disintegration of USSR.
Putin was the messiah for many Russians, who started
witnessing better standards of living.
10. Most
important aspect of Russia’s rise from the ashes was its emergence as an energy
super power. Today Russia is the world’s largest oil producer. Russia is also
the world’s largest producer of natural gas and is home to more than a third of global
proved reserves of natural gas. The country has become the energy provider for
most of Europe and Central Asia. This has provided the Russian Federation with
great leverage while dealing with countries in the region. This also meant that
the Russian economy by this period was a totally commodity dependent economy.
The consequences of this was best understood during the Global recession in
2008 when Russian GDP fell by 7% due to fall in crude prices. However the
economy regained growth immediately thereafter.
11. Today, Russia is growing into a diversified
economy. The agriculture has grown immensely and the services and industries
sector has shown tremendous potential. Accession to world Trade Organisation in
Dec 12, after 15years of negotiation, has provided Russian Manufacturers with
newer opportunities. It must also be
said that there was large scale interaction and mutual agreements with the West
and US, which contributed to a great extent to the resurgence of Russia.
12. IT sector has been the fastest growing
industry in Russia with an average rate of 10-15% over the last decade. The
foundation for Russia’s success in the field has largely been due to its world
class science programs in its higher education system, with half of Russia’s
higher education students studying science. According to some study, Russia has
the third highest per capita concentration of scientists and engineers in the
world. Today, Russia is behind only India and China in IT outsourcing and
software production. Space programme is
another area which has received big boost in recent times. The Space programme
was introduced as one of the key result areas of the then Russian president
Medvedev in 2008 and huge sums of money allocated for the purpose. It is
important to note that a quarter of the total amount was meant for military
space programme.
13. Defence
industry in Russia has been rejuvenated and renergised. Russian defence exports
in 2012 alone were worth 15 billion dollars which account for 26% of global
sales. Only US, with 30% of global share, is ahead of Russia. Libya was a major Su-35 aircraft purchaser prior to
Gadhafi’s death. New discussions between the new Libyan authorities and Russia
are expected to resume military cooperation between the two nations. Libya
signed a contract for 200 T-72 battle tank modernization, offering Russia
another promising buyer as it seeks to build business in the market of
restoring, upgrading, and repairing military weapon systems. Russia presently
exports military hardware to more than 56 countries. Russian aircraft, radar
systems, Air defence systems and ships, which cost only a fraction of the cost
of western equipment have been in great demand from many nations. The Russian
defence industry is expected to continue its growth rate and increase its share
of contribution towards the Russian GDP.
Military Power
14. Military
aspects form an area where Russia has largely lagged behind during her economic
resurgence. Most of the equipment are of the soviet vintage and the Military
itself needs widespread reforms. Steps to boost morale of personnel, increase
efficiency of forces and modernization programme has already been initiated by
the authorities. The wages of military personnel and military pensions have been
raised two- to three-fold since January
2012, compared to 2007 figures. The Russian Army has, salary-wise,
become one of the best employers in the country. Similarly, on the housing
front, over 250 billion roubles have been allocated for building housing for
retirees. In December 2012, 15,000 servicemen were in waiting for housing, a
considerable progress, compared with 160,000 plus servicemen in waiting four
years earlier
15. As
per global records of 2012, US tops military spending with 682 billion dollars,
accounting for 4.4 percent of GDP. The second place is taken by China with $166
billion (2 percent of GDP), and the third place - by the Russian Federation
with $90.7 billion (4.4 per cent).
Russian President in his defender of fatherland day speech in 2013, outlined
his priorities to make Russia a military super power, to place where Russia was
before. Plans for 770 million dollars additional spending till 2020 aiming to
complete 70% modernization of Russian Armed Forces have been finalized. 24% of
this amount has been catered for the Navy with 120 billion dollars kept aside
for ship building alone.
16. New Inductions. During
this period, the Russian Forces plan to induct SU-35 and Mig 35 fighter
aircraft, T-50 fifth generation stealth fighter, Mi 28 attack helicopter and AN
70 transport aircraft in addition to new generation battle tanks and MSTA-S 152
mm self-propelled howitzer guns. The Yasen-class submarine which will be
inducted from 2015 onwards, has been called the quietest sub in the ocean by
the Office of Naval Intelligence. It carries up to 32 cruise missiles and is
scheduled for ocean deployment by 2015 at a cost of 1.2 billion dollars each. Development
of the Bulava, Sineva, and Layner ballistic missiles best describe why Russia
is obsessed with submarines. These three submarine-launched ballistic-missiles
(SLBM's) are the forefront of Russia's naval missile defense. Additionally,
Russia is expanding its littoral water fleet navy with the Steregushchy-class
corvette ships. New Destroyers and four new aircraft carriers are in the
pipeline with induction likely to begin from 2020 onwards.
Foreign Policy
17. Russia
has been growing more and more assertive over the years. The growing
assertiveness is best reflected in the Russian efforts to protect her interest
and her citizens across the globe. Russian military intervention in Georgia in
2008, coercion of Baltic republics to accept Russian terms and the more recent
adoption of anti-adoption legislation aimed against US are also indicative of
Russia’s growing power. Russia has made it publicly known about its desire to
influence the world order against the hegemony of US. In keeping with this,
Russia has been strongly voicing her opinion in the International Community on
issues ranging from Afghanistan, Libya, Iran and Syria. Abandonment of the
Strategic Missile Shield System for Europe by none other than the US is the
best example of the world accepting the Russian reemergence.
18. Russia
has also launched diplomatic initiatives to strengthen her relations with the
former soviet republics and East European nations. Formation of a Eurasian Economic
Community is widely seen an effort by the Russian administration to form an
alliance to compete with the European Union. It is expected that the Eurasian
Union will have the Caucasian and Central Asian Republics as its members by
2015 and more countries of Eastern Europe in the coming years. Russia also has
growing relationship with China and a historical relationship with India, both
emerging powers. Further, Russia is in the process of carving out its own space
in the African region by providing them military assistance.
Future Prospects
19. At 17,075,400 square
kilometres, Russia is the largest country in the world,
covering more than one-eighth of the Earth's inhabited land area. Russia is
also the world's ninth most populous nation with 143 million people as of 2012. Extending across the whole of northern Asia,
Russia spans nine time zones and incorporates a wide range of environments and landforms. Presently, the Russian economy is the
eighth largest by nominal GDP and sixth largest by purchasing
power parity. Russia's extensive mineral and energy reserves are
considered to be the largest in the world. The
country is one of the five recognized nuclear
weapons states. In addition to being a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council,
Russia is a member of the G8, G20, the Council of Europe,
the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation,
the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation,
the Eurasian Economic Community,
the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and most recently the World Trade Organisation(WTO).
20. Current
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his ambitions to regain
the country’s lost glory. Today, Russia is already wielding its influence in
many spheres and regions around the world.
Establishment of a Eurasian Union and plans to expand it by 2015 to
cover all nations of Central Asia and likeminded nations of Caucasus and East
Europe is further indication of the rise of Russian influence. It can be
rightly said that Russia has already emerged from shadows and is keenly
promoting own ideologies. Considering the global status and influence of
Russia, it can be said in no uncertain terms that Russia is fast emerging in to
a world power. As on today, Russia is at best an influential nation and cannot
be considered as a super power at par with USA.
However, Russia is on the rise and if the rise continues at the current
rate, it will not be long before Russia is considered a super power again. The
country certainly has the military might, natural resources, a large population
and the national will to succeed. Where it lacks though, is on the economy
front which with the ongoing efforts are expected to strengthen further in the
coming years.
